Will Scottie Scheffler Finish His Career With Over or Under 9.5 Majors?

For the true golf heads out there — the ones who track strokes gained metrics, know which courses fit which players, and still rewatch Tiger's chip-in at 16 — this one’s for you. We’re diving into a hotly debated topic fresh off the No Laying Up podcast, where Chris Solomon, Neil Schuster, Tron Carter, and DJ Piehowski dropped a question that got us thinking:

Will Scottie Scheffler finish his career with over or under 9.5 major championships?

Let’s lay out the scene.

The Current Resume

Scheffler now holds three majors, after taking home the 2025 PGA Championship in dominant fashion — his first major outside Augusta. It wasn’t even close; he beat the field by five shots. Sure, Jon Rahm was lurking early before falling apart, but the way Scottie managed the course was textbook.

At just 28 years old, Scheffler joins a rare class of players with three majors before age 29, putting him in company with some of the game’s greats. With the U.S. Open and Open Championship still on deck this season, he has two more cracks in 2025 alone to inch closer to double digits.

So here’s the number: 9.5 majors. That’s the FanDuel-style line. To hit the over? He needs seven more.

What Would It Take?

To win 10 or more majors in a career would place Scottie in elite territory — we’re talking names like Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, and Walter Hagen. Only three men in history have reached that double-digit milestone. That’s the ceiling we’re entertaining here.

Can he do it?

Let’s map out a plausible path:

• Masters dominance: Augusta National fits Scheffler’s game like a glove — long, accurate off the tee, world-class iron play, and elite course management. He’s already proven he can win there multiple times. It's not outlandish to project him winning 3 to 5 total Masters titles. Let’s conservatively say he ends his career with 4 Masters wins.

• Completing the Career Grand Slam: Scheffler has the skillset to win every major. If he adds one U.S. Open and one Open Championship to his resume (both very possible over the next 15 years), that puts him at 6 majors.

• A few more anywhere else: From 2025 through, say, 2040 — age 43 — he’ll have 60+ starts in majors. Winning four more over that span? Not easy, but far from impossible for someone of his caliber.

Add it all up:
4 (Masters) + 1 (PGA he already won) + 1 (U.S. Open) + 1 (Open Championship) + 3 (miscellaneous) = 10 majors.

It’s not a stretch. In fact, it feels realistic.

The Competition Factor

One thing working against Scheffler: the depth of talent in this era.

Tiger dominated a landscape with less parity. Today? Scheffler’s going up against the likes of:

• Xander Schauffele, now a major champ and a laser with the irons.

• Bryson DeChambeau, who keeps refining his freakish game.

• Rory McIlroy, still capable of brilliance.

• Jon Rahm, though his move to LIV raises consistency questions.

Even with these challengers, Scheffler has separated himself. He’s the most complete golfer in the game today, and his putting — once the biggest question mark — seems to be stabilizing.

Why the Over Makes Sense

Let’s be clear: 10 majors is not easy. But Scheffler is on pace and in the prime of his career. If he plays into his 40s (and there’s no reason to believe he won’t), he’ll have plenty of opportunities.

The game travels. His mental approach is elite. And while no one is Tiger, Scottie might be the closest thing we’ve seen since.

Unless injuries or off-course issues derail his run, taking the over on 9.5 majors feels like the smart bet — and perhaps even the safe one.

What do you think?
Will Scottie Scheffler end his career with double-digit majors? Or will the depth of this era hold him under the 9.5 line? Drop your predictions in the comments.

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