What is the NBA Draft Lottery?

Every spring, as NBA fans shift their focus from the first two rounds of the playoffs, another pivotal event unfolds—the NBA Draft Lottery. It’s a system that has sparked passionate debate among analysts, fans, and front offices alike: Is the draft lottery the most fair and effective way to determine draft order in professional sports?

Let’s unpack how it works, why it exists, and whether it’s truly the best solution for the league.

How the NBA Draft Lottery Works

There are 30 teams in the NBA. Sixteen of them make the playoffs. Four additional teams enter the “play-in” tournament, which technically offers a postseason opportunity but doesn’t count toward being a full playoff team if you’re eliminated. That leaves 14 teams officially considered non-playoff teams—and those 14 enter the lottery.

Each of these teams is assigned a percentage chance to land the first overall pick, based on their record. For example, in this year's lottery:

• Washington Wizards, the worst team in the league, had the highest odds at 13.5%.

• Dallas Mavericks, who barely missed the playoffs, held just a 1.8% chance.

• Chicago Bulls had the slimmest hope with 1.7% odds.

Yet, despite the odds, Dallas emerged with the number one pick—an outcome that has reignited debates about the fairness of the lottery system.

The Prize at Stake: Cooper Flagg

This year, the top prize is Cooper Flagg, a versatile small forward from Duke University. National Player of the Year, heralded as a once-in-a-generation talent, Flagg is widely expected to shift the trajectory of whichever franchise lands him.

For Dallas, a team that—if fully healthy—could contend for a deep playoff run, getting Flagg is a potential championship-altering move. But for teams like Washington, who built their offseason strategy around a rebuild, missing out stings.

This is where the fairness debate heats up.

Comparing the NBA to the NFL

Let’s look at the NFL, where things are simpler: worst team gets the first pick. There is no lottery. The draft order is a clean inversion of the standings, giving the league’s worst team the best chance to improve.

This, however, has led to a notorious issue—tanking.

Tanking is when teams intentionally lose games to secure a better draft position. Whether it’s benching starters, trading away talent, or simply “not trying,” it’s become a reality in both the NBA and NFL. The NBA introduced the lottery in 1985 specifically to curb tanking.

But has it worked?

The Tanking Dilemma

Despite the lottery’s existence, tanking still happens. Teams subtly (or not-so-subtly) shut down star players or make lopsided trades to increase their odds in the draft. Because of how influential a single player can be in basketball (only five on the court at a time), the reward is massive.

The gap in impact between the first and second pick is often huge. In this year’s draft, Flagg is the consensus No. 1, while Rutgers’ Dylan Harper—though incredibly talented—is not seen on the same tier. That kind of drop-off fuels desperation.

In football, with 22 starters and a deeper talent pool, the top pick isn’t always transformational. But in basketball, it absolutely can be.

A Radical Alternative: The “Toilet Bowl”

One potential solution to eliminate tanking? A bold new concept: the Toilet Bowl Tournament.

Here’s how it would work:

• The bottom four teams in the league enter a mini-tournament.

• The worst team plays the best of the four, while the middle two face off.

• Winners play for the right to the No. 1 overall pick.

This system would eliminate tanking completely. Instead of trying to lose, bad teams would be forced to prove themselves in meaningful games.

Critics may argue that this could trap bad teams in a cycle of failure—perennially stuck with the fourth pick. But historically, top-four picks in the NBA still offer franchise-altering talent. The statistical advantage between the first and fourth pick is real, but not insurmountable.

This method could also add excitement for fanbases of struggling teams, giving them something to cheer for even after a rough season.

Why the NBA Lottery Still Matters

Ultimately, the lottery was born out of necessity—to combat the strategic losing that had taken over the league. And in many ways, it has worked. It adds an element of suspense, it spreads the odds, and it discourages blatant tanking.

But when a borderline playoff team like the Mavericks wins the lottery, questions arise. Is it right that a team nearly good enough for the Western Conference Finals could also walk away with Cooper Flagg?

Is chaos better than predictability?

Final Thoughts

The NBA Draft Lottery is a unique, flawed, but arguably necessary solution to one of sports’ most frustrating issues. It's not perfect. But compared to the alternatives—and especially the NFL model—it offers a more balanced approach that at least tries to keep everyone honest.

Still, new ideas like the “Toilet Bowl” deserve real consideration. They might be unconventional, but as the NBA evolves, so should its systems.

So what do you think? Is the lottery fair? Or is it time for a change?

Let us know your thoughts, and don’t forget to subscribe, follow us on social media, and drop a like.